The Iranian war is causing an oil shock, and prices are skyrocketing. This has implications globally, and pressure is mounting on the Trump administration. The question I’m getting is: what is a possible off-ramp, as the White House simply doesn’t want global disruption and midterms are looming. Given the stakes at hand, I suspect the White House is considering calling this recent decimation of Iran a “victory” and letting matters settle. Practically speaking, the benefits of continuing this war are inferior to stopping it if Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been significantly degraded, which seems to be the case. Whatever your political stance, there are practical people in the administration, and I wouldn’t dismiss this off-ramp, especially if oil continues to spike.
Investors often ask why they would invest during periods of instability. It’s because investments go on sale during disruptions, and by the time stability returns, those opportunities are already gone. Remember, the greater the global disruption, the quicker a conclusion to this war.
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